PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.
The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 84% of simulations over the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady is averaging 318 passing yards and 2.7 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 61 rushing yards and a 45% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 15% of simulations where Kansas City Chiefs wins, Tyler Palko averages 1.64 TD passes vs 0.51 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.09 TDs to 0.92 interceptions. Jackie Battle averages 67 rushing yards and 0.45 rushing TDs when Kansas City Chiefs wins and 49 yards and 0.21 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 94% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -14 — Over/Under line is 48
‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | ATS RECORD | NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 5-4-0 | All Games | 5-4-0 | No Edge |
| Road Games | 3-1-0 | Home Games | 2-2-0 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| When Underdog | 5-2-0 | When Favored | 4-4-0 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Non-Division Opp | 2-3-0 | Non-Division Opp | 2-3-0 | No Edge |
| Opp .500+ Record | 3-1-0 | Opp Under .500 | 0-0-0 | No Edge |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.
| KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | ATS RECORD | NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 8-8-1 | All Games | 11-6-0 | New England Patriots |
| Road Games | 3-4-1 | Home Games | 5-4-0 | New England Patriots |
| When Underdog | 4-3-1 | When Favored | 8-6-0 | No Edge |
| Non-Division Opp | 7-3-1 | Non-Division Opp | 7-3-0 | No Edge |
| Opp .500+ Record | 2-3-1 | Opp .500+ Record | 5-2-0 | New England Patriots |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | O-U-P RECORD | NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 3-6-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 5-4-0 | UNDER |
| On Road | 2-2-0 | At Home | 2-2-0 | No Edge |
| All Totals Last Season | 8-9-0 | All Totals Last Season | 14-3-0 | OVER |
| On Road Last Season | 4-4-0 | At Home Last Season | 8-1-0 | OVER |
Without a doubt, the AFC South is the division that will be most decided by injury this season. The Colts have floundered all year without Peyton Manning and have still not won a game. After the 17-3 loss to the Jags, the Colts are 11.7 percent to go 0-16. The Texans have been the biggest beneficiaries of the Colts’ struggles, but now have lost quarterback Matt Schaub for the season. Still, Houston has won four games in a row and is still the overwhelmingly choice for the division. The Texans are projected to win the division 88.6 percent of the time, a drop of less than 4 percent from a week ago. Their biggest competitor is the Titans who doubled their playoff probability this week. Part of the Titans’ gain is due to Schaub’s injury, and part is due to a blowout win over Carolina. Jacksonville beat Indy for its third win of the year but still remains an extreme longshots for the postseason.
New England reestablished control of the AFC East with a 21-point road win over rival New York. The Patriots are back to being the most likely playoff team and division winner in the conference, gaining 9.2 percentage points in probability this week. The Jets, meanwhile, are still in a real dogfight for a Wild Card berth, and make the playoffs 30.9 percent of the time in simulations, a drop of 9.3 percent from last week. Buffalo is also in trouble for the postseason. The Bills make the playoffs in 20.9 percent of simulations, a drop of 6.5 percent. Miami has won twice in a row, but the brutal start to the season still leaves the Dolphins with no chance for the playoffs.
The AFC North has proven to be the best division in football this year and one of the most difficult to predict. The Steelers beat the Bengals on the road to stake claim to role of favorites. Pittsburgh wins the division 48.6 percent of the time while making the playoffs 91.5 percent of the time. Cincinnati is one of the big surprises of the year, and still played well despite losing. The Bengals are currently projected to win one of the Wild Card spots making the playoffs 68.4 percent of the time. Baltimore is tied with Cincy at 6-3, but has shown maddening inconsistency week to week. The Ravens only had to beat lowly Seattle to stay firmly in control of the division, but the Ravens, again, lost on the road. They are still 77.4 percent likely to make the postseason but fell out of first place in the North. The Browns are the only team out of the race with just a 0.2 percent chance of a miracle playoff berth.
| AFC | WEEK 10 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
| TEAM | WK 10 | WK 11 | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
| OAKLAND RAIDERS | 18.6% | 60.8% | 42.2% | 58.8% |
| PITTSBURGH STEELERS | 81.1% | 91.5% | 10.5% | 48.6% |
| NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | 85.9% | 95.1% | 9.2% | 88.8% |
| TENNESSEE TITANS | 9.0% | 18.2% | 9.2% | 11.0% |
| DENVER BRONCOS | 3.6% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 4.7% |
| MIAMI DOLPHINS | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | 0.7% | 0.5% | -0.2% | 0.4% |
| CLEVELAND BROWNS | 0.7% | 0.2% | -0.6% | 0.0% |
| HOUSTON TEXANS | 92.6% | 90.8% | -1.8% | 88.6% |
| BALTIMORE RAVENS | 83.5% | 77.4% | -6.1% | 33.2% |
| CINCINNATI BENGALS | 74.6% | 68.4% | -6.2% | 18.2% |
| BUFFALO BILLS | 27.4% | 20.9% | -6.5% | 7.1% |
| KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | 10.9% | 4.3% | -6.7% | 4.0% |
| NEW YORK JETS | 40.2% | 30.9% | -9.3% | 4.1% |
| SAN DIEGO CHARGERS | 71.3% | 35.7% | -35.7% | 32.5% |
